I got a question from a subscriber…
Hey, Rayner, I’ve learned almost everything about trading. I know most of the trading indicators, price action trading, chart patterns, and etc.
But… I’m still not a consistently profitable trader.
I’m doing it for many years now… should I give up trading altogether?
I know it can be frustrating pouring in your heart and soul into something… and not getting the results you want.
And this is why I poured my heart and soul in today’s video.
I’ll share with you a simple solution to get out of the trading “rat race”… and how to go from a losing trader to consistent trader.
And in my opinion, it’s worth watch every minute of it.
I share with you a swing trade I took (that gained 1.3R) and explain my thought process from start to finish.
If there’s only one video you can watch this week, then it would be this…
I hope you’ve enjoyed this week’s analysis.
If you’ve got any questions, don’t hesitate to let me know in the comments section below. Cheers!
Do you want to learn a new trading strategy that allows you to profit in bull and bear markets?
In the Ultimate Guide to Trend Following, I will teach you this powerful trading strategy step by step, along with charts and examples.
You can download it here for FREE.
Thank you Rayner for this video, I got the recipes and ingredients now
Awesome to hear that, Wee You!
Who else is also half expecting rayner to start off with hey hey mofos
What is the ATR period value in 4 hours timeframe?
I use a 20 period for it
Thanks Rayner…..I just soo needed this video this morning.. perfect timing
Back to the recipe…….
Keep em going, Chris!
Thanks for another great video Rayner! Good luck in the markets this week.
Thanx once for sharing what you know about the markets and what you seeing on a weekly with us much appreciated.
I have a question for you Rayner….Whats your view on Pending orders do you after spotting a possible set up place an order with your sl or wait for the market and make a decision?
Pending order is fine. I use both limit and stop orders.
Thank you for the video. Lots of valuable information.
You’re welcome John 🙂
Oh That’s why am not profiting… i am not trading enough… I need more trades then… review them only after 10 or 20 trades… ill organize my trades this way then rather than weekly trades… thank you for the share Rayner
Keep me updated on your progress.
Great video Theo as always
The pleasure is mine, Kelvin
I have watched the video, there’s one thing I don’t understand.
About at minute 5:20 you say you took “half off the table”. This is something I have worked a lot in the past years because it’s a deceptive way to feel “safe” (having secured money), however it brings a big danger.
In fact, nothing says the market has to keep rising after you took profit. Actually, as you say, it’s an area of resistance so it’d not be a surprise if price stopped there.
Statistically speaking, let’s say 50% of the time price will keep rising and 50% it’ll bounce back.
In the first case – and only in the first case – you indeed achieve your 1.3:1 R/R.
But in the second case, depending on how you trailed the stop loss, you might actually go below 1:1. If fact you risked 100% of your capital to earn 1:1 but then only take out 50%, from that moment forward you are trading at 0.5:1 until the trade is fully closed.
Repeat this many times and the 1.3:1 will likely become 1.15:1 due to this, minus spread, minus fees (if any).
Some trading instructors actually take 50% off before even getting to 1:1 or don’t move the stop loss of the remaining portion of the trade. Doing so, they deliver a below 1:1 R:R and over time they mathematically lose the account.
The thing about risk to reward is that it isn’t a complete picture without taking into account the win rate.
Having a 1 to 0.5 risk to reward can still be profitable with a win rate of 80%.
thank you for replying!
Yes, I did not talk about win rate, because I assume if you are a swing trader you win about 60%-ish of the time (if you are good).
If you took these trades with a trend following strategy, it should be around 45% win rate. Maybe I am missing some fundamental elements here, I don’t know your trading style well enough 🙂
Rayner, you mention about the 200 SMA as bias to trade from daily. For example if 200 SMA is above current market price on daily chart.
looking at 4 hr. chart 200 SMA is below market price.
Should one wait until 200 SMA on 4 hr. chart is in sync with daily 200 SMA to trade,or just take trade short only from 4 hr. chart?
If I understand this concept better my trading would improve.
I know I am very inconsistent in this area, and it’s effecting my trading greatly.
There’s no right or wrong to this question.
But if I’m getting my trend bias from daily, then I won’t wait for 200MA to align on H4.