Comments

1. Ben says

   February 1, 2015 at 4:20 pm

   Hi Rayner,

   How would you decide if a trend is indeed a trend? For example, Bunds are definitely in a trend, ignoring the fundamental macro perspective for a while, if the market changes direction, when will you decide it becomes a bear market from a bull market from the technical standpoint?

   A few weeks of bear candles and a cross over of the two EMAs?

   Thanks!

   Reply

2. Rayner says

   February 1, 2015 at 4:26 pm

   Hi Ben,

   That’s a good question and I am actually preparing a post on how I detect when a trend may be ending.

   That aside, i look at a few things.

   1) Structure of the markets, higher highs and lows.

   2) Whether price closes beyond the moving average

   3) Break of trendline

   Do check out the post this coming week, I believe it will explain better.

   Rayner

   Reply

3. fadh says

   February 4, 2015 at 2:18 am

   hi rayner,

   whats your opinion on wheat? at H4 theres a single big green bar…is it still in the downtrend or is the trend going to change?

   thanks

   Reply

   • Rayner says

     February 4, 2015 at 9:29 am

     Hi fadh,

     Honestly i have no idea if the trend will change, i simply can’t predict.

     Price could continue higher before trading lower, or continue higher without looking back. It sounds silly but that’s the truth.

     And since that are the 2 possibilities, the only thing for certain is to have your stops in place to manage your risk.

     Rayner

     Reply

     • fadh says

       February 4, 2015 at 2:30 pm

       thanks rayner. hopefully this is a selling opportunity.

       Reply

       • Rayner says

         February 4, 2015 at 2:49 pm

         Hey fadh,

         Don’t forget to place your stop loss 🙂

         Rayner

         Reply