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Yes, Give it to me

How to Tell When the Market is Trending Without Second Guessing Yourself 

 November 12, 2015

By  Rayner

You know an uptrend consists of higher highs and higher lows.

But when you attempt to identify the trend with this approach, there is a subjective element to it.

So…

Is there a way to define a trend more objectively?

Yes and I’ll teach you how to do it in a step by step manner.

Watch the video below:

I hope you’ve enjoyed this week’s video post. As always, comments are welcomed and encouraged. Cheers!

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  • With all due respect to your 3 EMA strategy to determine the trend, I still prefer the Ichimoku cloud (in relation to PA as well as angle and colour) to give me an immediate feel for the trend. I used three EMA (20-50-200) myself for a long time but sometimes I would still entered in the wrong trade when the conditions were not perfect. And as far as long term vs. shorter term, you only have to look at the Ichimoku cloud, at the appropriate timeframe, to see what the trend is for that timeframe you are curently trading. I also time my entry, as well as exit often enough, using the ADX/DMI indicator. I find the combination of Ichimoku cloud with the DMI indicator, never let me down when it comes to the clear direction of the trend as well as timing. And, if the PA is inside the cloud, that tells me to stay away from the trade and wait for the PA to emerge in either direction. Alternatively, change your timeframe and trade accordingly. Having said all that, I still keep my 20 and 50 EMA in place for confirmation (hahahahaha). Cheers.

  • Always use the simple and easy method to describe it, easy for the newbie to understand the current trend . great job and well done ! rayner !

  • Hi Rayner,

    I hope you are well.

    Thank you for your posts, they are a great help to me as a new trader, I wonder if you can assist me though, I want to learn about the various patterns, and I read in one of your posts that you used to trade these patterns, it is my intention to start with the Cypher pattern on a 4 hour chart of the GBPUSD, next week and to start back testing the last 5 years, then trading this pair whilst moving onto the EURUSD etc. (any advise you can give as to this process, would be greatly appreciated)

    I am having a small problem though, and I hope you are able to assist me – I cannot find a source for the following information :

    How do I identify the impulse leg i.e. the XA leg?

    What constitutes a perfect impulse leg?

    What is critical in an impulse leg?

    Is there any other information I need, but am either, too ignorant or naive to ask?

    Your assistance will be greatly appreciated.

    Kind Regards

    Neill
    (South Africa)

    • Hi Neill,

      Sorry but I don’t trade these patterns anymore.

      It would be better for you to seek the help of traders who trades these patterns instead.

      I believe Youtube would be able to help you with it.

      Rayner

  • I also use the ichimoku cloud to define the trend …at one glance I can see what it is…I studied many years with the Japanese rice traders and that is the secret to making fortunes..candlesticks along with the ichimoku…

  • Hi Rayner, i was wondering in one of the earlier slide saying “If MA is pointing 4 o’clock and lower, the down trend is weak” if you actually meant the down trend is “strong”? as in the examples, you pointed out that the steeper slope (=lower than 4 o’clock) is actually a strong trend?
    Anyway, thanks for the video. Great learning experience again!

  • thanx for all the information you have given to us rayner its extremely helpful….thank you for sharing however i have some few questions to ask as a newbie……in the video above about indentifying trend you used 20,100,200 EMA for short term medium and long term trend direction……however in some videos you have used 20EMA and 50EMA…..what is the idea EMA to use on 1hour,4hour and daily time frame……thanx in advance

    • Hello John,

      There’s no ideal EMA to use but rather you need to find something that suits you best.

      I use the 20 & 50 because it makes the most sense for my trading style.

      So there’s no right or wrong down here.

      Rayner

  • Rayner, depending upon how the 3 EMA strength, how does our trading change? Does it mean that if the shorter period EMA is strong we trade in smaller time frame? What if the shorter period EMA is not strong (is wavy) but medium (100) and longer (200) are strong do we trade on longer time frame like 1 hr or 4 hours?

    Truly appreciate the efforts you put!

    • Hi Nat,

      If the trends are in conflict, you can always choose to skip the trade.

      Basically, the 200 MA is a longer term trend that is based on your current timeframe. If you’re trading in the 5 minutes TF, it will dictate the long term trend on the 5 minutes.

      Rayner

  • Does the trend strength of the 200 matter or just check if price is above or below for determining trend even if 200 is flat?
    Thank you for the response

  • In this video you are using 20-100-200 ma.
    But in your analisys you use 20-50-200 ma.
    Can you tell me why is that you change it to 50ma instead of 100?

  • Hey Rayner I love your videos!

    I can never guess where the candles are going once it hits SR.
    Sometimes it goes up in a downtrend (I lost money!)
    Sometimes goes down in an uptrend (I lost again!)
    What’s your secret to determine whether the candles are going? Any key confirmations?

    Thank you

  • Thank you Rayner. Please I am a newbie and I don’t know what 2:00 o’clock and 4:00 o’clock actually mean.
    I will be grateful if you can explain it to me.

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